10 Tips For Professional Punting

source from: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-become-a-professional-bettor

At some point in time all people who bet have to ask themselves the question: Is this merely an expensive hobby for "fun" or something I can make enough money from to live off?
Most of us all fall somewhere in the middle. At various times we will feel confident that winning consistently from our views is achievable. At other times we feel embarrassed by poor decisions and bet "for an interest" or because a game we know nothing about is televised.
No punter is perfect and no punter has never made errors or chased. The important thing is learning from these mistakes and steering clear of them.
If you are serious about moving your betting in the direction of becoming a profession, here's 10 tips to help you along the tricky path.

1- Find An Edge And Stay On It

This is key. Put theory to one side and concentrate on finding yourself an angle. A vital edge that means you can make a profit. Whether it is lower league football or specialising at one greyhound track, you need to become a cut above the crowd and form views that are not in the public domain i.e not in the price already.

2- Don't Set Daily Targets

Pointless, futile and leads to chasing. On a quiet day at the end of each month, tot up the figures and record them. Try not to procrastinate over them and only focus on what went wrong and why.

3- Keep Form Study And Analysis Separate From The Actual Business Of Betting

Get your opinions formed before the actual mechanics of betting and trading take place. Unless you are wealthy enough like Patrick Veitch to have a small army of bet-placers to do your business, it is essential to have a clear idea of what you want to do before the difficult task of "getting-on" takes place.
Trying to study form "on the hoof" during racing for example is very difficult and often leads to poor decisions. The ideal pro will have his prices formed in the morning and base trading decisions on them in the afternoon.

4- Have A "Working" Betting Day And Avoid Playing At All When "Off"

A fatal flaw that we can all succumb to. There is nothing worse than turning the computer on one Sunday and losing a few hundred pounds/euros when you had no intention of doing anything. This can really upset the mindset and also ruin a day of rest. Forget the game completely unless utterly dedicated to it.

5- Talk To Others But Don't Listen To Them!

The life of a punter can be very isolated and it is very important to touch base with fellow humans. Also chatting to people whose view we respect can provide another angle that had not been considered.
However, never be swayed too much especially during poor spells when self doubt can always creep in. "Inside information" or a "hot tip" are also best avoided in the longer term, principally because 9/10 the price will already reflect this "secret".

6- Keep Betting Money Totally Separate From Day To Day Expenses/Life

Try not to merge "real life" necessities with money for betting. This makes life a lot less stressful and also makes us take a far more business like approach to money management/betting.

7- Do Not Get Bored

Can be fatal. I often found when specialising in jumps racing that during the summer I was very vulnerable to playing on the flat purely because there was little else to do, (with very expensive consequences). All of us have a bit of "action junkie" in us and it is very dangerous if it takes over. Betfair can do this to a lot of otherwise very shrewd people.

8- Avoid The Persecution Complex

Why me? How many photo's have I been beaten in today? What has the jockey done there? How did he miss that? Forget it! These things level out in time and we all tend to remember the unlucky losers and forget the fortunate winners!

9- Don't Tell The Whole World When You Are Winning

"Won very small". "Lost very small". Six words that every pro-punter needs to learn off by heart, particularly if he is married or in a relationship.

10- Relate Staking To Strength Of Opinion, Not To Position Financially On The Day Or Week.

The hardest to achieve but the most important. A former colleague of mine, lets call him Hunter, was an excellent judge of rugby league and showed the importance of staking to me. He watched a huge number of matches and had "ins" at all the main clubs and would have "positions" on a large number of games every week. After paying a commission agent/exchange charges etc he broke about level year on year on his weekly business.
However, where he was excellent and turned this opinion into huge overall profits, was where he had a very strong "nap". This would often be based on "team news" direct from one of the clubs where for example, a team was severely weakened by injuries or illness. He would find this out well ahead of the industry and really smash into the stronger team at all rates and in all markets. When the shock news became public he would have a massive edge over the layers who found they had huge liabilities at totally wrong levels.
In this information age such an "edge" has gone, but the shrewd punter is always on the lookout for the next one, while Hunter has now semi-retired and plays golf!

Easier Said Than Done

The theory with betting is often far easier to write about than it is to execute in practice. All of us have felt that flushed feeling when something goes wrong with a bet. That twitch to chase the losses and plunge on anything to immediately recoup the losses from a bet that we had thought home and hosed.
Here is where most of us go totally wrong. Betting is an intensely personal and private thing and controlling instincts and having a very strong mind are essential. Otherwise we can all become the "bookmakers dream punter", someone who bets in every race/game, playing bigger and bigger as we try and claw back earlier losses until the entire tank has gone.
Even the most astute and highly regarded backers such as Patrick Veitch has stated that he waits to settle his weekly accounts sometimes to make sure they show a profit. i.e settles them after a fortnight when he is back in front. This is purely psychological and means he feels "in the zone" going forward to the next period.
Racehorse owner and pro-punter John Basquill also states the importance of regular wins achieved by playing in a size well within his comfort zone. He has learnt that life outside of betting is far more relaxed if the bad days do not play on the mind too much, while in-running expert Steve Noyce emphasises how important it is to play a long, patient game and avoid the bad habits of smashing away that ruin so many.
These are punters who do nothing else other than bet for a living, and their ideas and attitudes are very important to understand even for people who see betting a recreation.

四連環策略

逆向思維 – 四連環策略

在繼續講「過關」策略之前，想盆開話題，講賽馬的投注心得。

先旨聲明，對於賽馬，我是初哥，絕不專業，也不沉迷，不過，我有一些另類投注策略，想和大家分享。
又來先說小故事。
由於丈夫很喜歡養馬，我們有入馬房探馬的習慣。
入馬房探班，練馬師和馬房經理忙於招呼馬主，我卻享受和馬伕和馬房助理傾談。
練馬師告訴馬主的，和馬伕告訴我的，是十分不同的東西。
從馬伕身上，我學會很多馬匹的知識，例如，怎看馬匹狀態、甚麼是肥、甚麼是瘦、怎麼算是壯、怎麼叫做弱；怎樣算是身光頸靚，高班馬是甚麼型格、低班馬欠缺甚麼．．．
如是者，聽了幾年，漸漸看馬匹的神態，牠輕鬆或緊張、精神爽利或怠惰厭戰，我都略懂。
我又對馬匹的身型比例，有不錯的眼光．現時，我看著一匹馬，能約略看出牠的體重。
關於馬匹的知識，我不懂的還有太多，但不懂有不懂的玩法。
最近我研究了四連環的投注方法，把逆向思維放了進去，並且已試驗兩個月，效果不錯。

四連環的玩法，是要選中第一二三四名的馬匹，名次不分．
如果每場選7匹馬買四連環的話，即共投注35注．
如果有冷馬跑進頭四名，只要每注派彩超過$350元，即有錢贏．

我的四連環玩法：選跑馬地夜賽，最好是四、五班場次，出馬十二匹的場合中投注。
選馬的方式，並不是選最有機會的7匹，而是剔走最沒機會的5匹。
剔走覺得沒機會的5匹，剩餘7匹，希望牠們跑入前4名，只要當中有冷腳，就會很好分；當然，全熱門的話，派彩可能少於35倍，即是要蝕錢。
這種投注方法，如果你很有心水的話，可選馬膽，1膽拖6匹則只需20注。
不過，我不通常不會膽拖，因為這種玩法，就是希望冷腳走進來，會比較好分．
也不是一定要買$10一注的，在馬會的手機app中投注，可以選「靈活玩」，最低可以玩$100注項總額，即每注$2.85（但我不清楚投注站和電話投注是否一樣）。
這玩法，我試驗了兩個月，每次都是平等注項，每注$10，收獲不錯。

選跑馬地「夜馬」、「低班」的，是因為通常會比較亂局，爆冷機會較大。
「十二匹場合」，是因為要剔走的比留下的少，在十四匹的場合不宜試，因為要剔走七匹沒機會的，和選七匹有機會一樣難。
「不拖膽」，是因為希望冷的跑入來，整體來說，都是一種逆向思維，所以，問題不是哪匹最有機會。
當然，以上所有原則，都可以有些微變動，例如是三班賽事，又或者沙田賽事，只要你覺得可以這樣玩，亦不妨一試。
三月六日晚上的跑馬地夜馬，我用了這個方法，試了四場，中了三場，有些很好分頭，有些得不償失，然後我發現，在有幾匹太有把握的馬在的場合，就不宜用這種方法投注，刨完了亦要忍手。

還有一些秘訣，近來，潘頓韋達的不要飛，輕磅靚檔的不能飛，灰馬不好飛，後補上陣的亦不能飛。
這方法供大家參考，合心水的請隨便拿去用．

source from - http://www.roadshow.hk/blog-spotting by 梁芷珊

Meet The Perfect Punter

Source from - http://www.bettingexpert.com

Throughout our Talking Betting series we have discussed the world of professional betting with a selection of pro-punters and industry insiders, in the process attempting to unearth the trade secrets that set them apart from the crowd and survive long term in the gambling game.
Today we imagine the world of the "perfect punter".
Our PP made the bold step to go it alone in his mid-twenties after spending his years following university in a variety of roles for a major online bookmaker. Here he gained a valuable insight into the habits of vast numbers of punters and saw the failings that led many to lose steadily over a long period of time.
He developed strategies and areas of expertise in which he specialised, and always dreamed of not having to answer to bosses and devote more of his time to studying and betting himself. When the company relocated to Gibralter he accepted redundancy rather than move to Spain and used the money as a starting "tank" on which to begin his existence as a "pro-punter".

Discipline

0ur PP treats everyday as a day in the office at work. He starts early at 7am and closes the door on the outside world until 6pm. He is not distracted by phone-calls or interruptions that can blight so many people who work from home. His office is crucially at the end of the garden in a converted garage where he can shut himself off and concentrate totally on the pursuit of profitable wagers and trades.
Crucially he has two days off every week (Sunday and Monday) which he can devote as family time and a chance to do chores and admin. He never bets at all on these days. He has regular holidays that are planned months in advance and again is never tempted to bet during these recreational times.
He never bets at all for the sake of having an "interest", or when out in the evening in the pub. He plays strictly only when he can find a price that is bigger than he believes the real chance to be. The PP is happy to have risk free trades when he can, i.e laying his stake back at a lesser price before an event begins, but he does not set out to arb deliberately. He is happy that his judgement will be vindicated over time and is calm in his mindset that he is "right", without having the arrogance to believe that everything he does is right.

Specialising and Price Sensitivity

Our PP is interested solely in one area of betting. He may enjoy watching the football live in the evening and attend Test Matches in the Summer on his days off, but he will never bet on sports where he has no edge or purely to bring excitement to an outcome to which he does not care. He devotes his time to watching over and over the recordings of horse races, making notes on how every runner has performed and storing them on his constantly updating database. In the morning he will price up every runner in the races he feels he can price i.e ignoring races with debutantes in or gambling stables, and will formulate a "tissue" price on every runner in these races. He will not even glance at the betting exchanges before formulating his prices and will try to get a "perfect" tissue at around the 100% point.
The PP will be aware of all real-time events that can alter his ideas about certain races, i.e non runners, the weather causing the ground to change, effect of the draw etc etc. He must have his finger firmly on the pulse but all the time using the solid base of his carefully constructed prices. He is not sentimental in anyway and does not attach himself emotionally to certain horses he has bet in the past. His view is C0MPLETELY and T0TALLY based on PRICE, and it is this that guides him when to bet. If he has missed a price he will never chase it down and accept underneath what his tissue tells him is the "real" chance of success.

Accounts and Exchanges

0ur PP has found life getting harder and harder in trying to have worthwhile accounts with online layers. He has found more and more that he needs to be inventive in getting wagers on at the best prices, i.e playing in cash in betting shops or getting relations to open accounts for him. 90% of his business is now conducted on the betting exchanges, although he finds the 3% "tax" on his winning bets has a huge impact on his bottom line profitability and would prefer to have the win bets with conventional layers. This has become difficult because of the heavy restrictions placed on every new account he opens as soon as it attracts the attention of traders.
The PP finds the challenge of getting bets on one of the major negatives of being a pro. The firms are increasingly intolerant of anyone they believe to not be a "mug" punter and horse racing in particular has become a comparatively unprofitable arena for them. When he started he found it relatively easy to play in size. He now accepts that most of his attempted bets will be reduced dramatically in the few online accounts he has left. While this is frustrating, he does take heart that this is a mark of respect in which the layers hold his judgement.

Finances and Control

The PP remembers advice that an old pro gave him when he first started: "Everyone is a blinding player when they are in front. It is only the true professionals that still play the same way when they are losing". The PP never chases his losses at all and maintains a level of betting unrelated to an event that has gone before.
His finances for betting are in a separate bank account that he does not use for anything else. That way he can measure his successes and failures without worrying about paying the gas bill. The PP will review each month how his betting is going, without suddenly changing strategy because of a temporary blip in profits.
Again it is a totally a numbers game. The PP views his profits as a salary for all the hours of studying that he puts in. He is not after a life changing win from wild accumulators, but rather the steady grind of regular winnings. This type of strategy is far easier to deal with mentally for the PP. His confidence in his own ability is measured by a steady flow of profits rather than by blasting his way out of trouble and all the highs and lows that punting that way can lead to.

Keeping Emotion and Ego Out Of It

The PP is calm and measured in his approach. He does not scream out loud in victory or defeat. He doesn't feel the need to tell all his pals (or wife) when he has had a spectacular winning (or losing) day. So many punters put their "egos" into punting rather than their brains and the PP has seen plenty come and go out of the game. He realises that to survive and earn enough he has to be consistent in his approach and unemotional in his mindset.

Loneliness, Feelings of Self Worth and "Grass Is Always Greener Syndrome"

0ur PP is happy in his own company but is aware of the mental strain that pro-betting can lead to. He has seen his best pal return to an office job purely because the lonely hours spent staring at a computer screen without human contact drove him slightly mad. He fell foul to the "grass is greener" idea where he felt he was missing out on the "real world".
Many pros feel slightly embarrassed to declare what they do for a living and socially it can be hard to explain to people who have pre-conceived ideas about the type of person a "gambler" actually is. The PP has found the best cure for this wobble in self belief is to try the occasional rush hour journey with his peers who still engage in the "rat race". He finds that 45 mins on a rammed train in the morning followed by standing on the tube into town rapidly cures him of any ideas of returning to a "normal" job.
The PP enjoys the fact that he manages his own time and is his own boss but recognises that, to avoid burn out and fatigue, he does have to regulate his hours spent betting and trading.
The PP has reached a secure financial position and is confident in his ability to stay ahead of an ever-changing game.