《華爾街日報》日前一篇文章援引據專家們的建議，列出了2013年求職者必須具備四種工作技能：
1、 良好的溝通技巧
無論級別如何，溝通是員工在公司裡晉升的關鍵。
普華永道（PricewaterhouseCoopers）招聘負責人保羅表示：這是一種真正能夠清楚表述觀點、建立聯結的能力。
對求職者而言，良好的溝通能力可給雇主留下其工作風格的初步印象。保羅說：「五分鐘談話可以讓我知道到他們的積極性，並瞭解他們關切的重點。」
隨著越來越多辦公室談話變為網上交流，一些員工正在失去或從未發展某些交流技巧，例如口頭報告能力，而一些人可能無法連貫書寫較長篇的文章。
加州人力資源公司Robert Half International高級執行總監麥克唐納（Paul McDonald）表示：在某些方面，科技已經奪走了我們的寫作能力。人們總是匆忙，且常同一時間處理多項任務。使許多人失去了基本拼寫和校對等能力。
2、 個人品牌 （Personal branding）
人力資源管理層喜歡搜索並研究應聘者的博客、推特（Twitter）或如LinkedIn等社群網站。所以讓他們欣賞網上的訊息至關重要。
紐約職場培訓服務機構Dale Carnegie Training首席執行官漢達爾（Peter Handel）表示：這是你的自有品牌，就是如何呈現你自己。注意網上發佈的資訊是否日後會困擾你，因為人們會看到這些。
員工也應確保個人品牌具有吸引力，並為雇主帶來益處。位於紐約的職業生涯專家哈博菲德（Meredith Haberfeld）表示：越來越多公司正在尋找能在推特上發文、為他們發表博文、建立一個讀者群，並撰寫引人注目且活潑帖子的雇員。
哈博菲德提到，其企業客戶中一名雇員最近在Facebook上發表關於自己吃中國菜和吸大麻煙捲的資訊，讓她的上司看到了。
3、靈活彈性
在2013年，雇主為靈活應對客戶而有千變萬化要求，快速回應這些要求的能力將至關重要。
漢達爾表示：很多企業都希望我們幫助其員工們走出「舒適區」，並學會調適。「今天的工作，明年會變得很不一樣。」
一位企業主說，學習新技能的能力將極為重要。「我們得知道，如果公司推出一個新方案或新設備，我們線上的員工能以開明的態度去學習，」他說。
4、提高工作效率
專家建議，2013年員工應該尋找新的方法來提高工作效率。根據商務研究諮詢機構Corporate Executive Board最近一項調查，經營管理層正計畫明年提升員工績效自目前水準提高20％。
麥克唐納說，當你工作時，你會自發性地參與不同的項目嗎？是否嘗試具創意的方式組織工作內容。他強調，「主動參與才能真正使你脫穎而出。」
正在考慮未來幾年增聘員工的企業，是要求現任員工就能以成長的模式運作。哈博菲德說，「我的企業客戶所要徵聘的員工需有很強的認知能力，明白什麼是被期待的和需要做的，而不是被告知了才去做。」
2013年4月29日星期一
雷鼎鳴 - 「將有五危」的啟示
【晴報專訊】《孫子》的確是本奇書，它展
示出與敵周旋可用的策略，當中精微細緻處或許不及學術界建構出的《博弈論》，但它對人性的深刻了解及由此而衍生出來的詭變之道，卻又非《博弈論》諸位行家
所及，難怪內地書店中《博弈論》著作雖大受歡迎，但《孫子》的各種解說之多，同樣使人目不暇給。讀讀《孫子》，對判斷今天世事，大有益。
《孫子》引人入勝的章節不可勝數，《九變篇》中的一段便使人拍案叫絕：「故將有五危：必死，可殺也；必生，可虜也；忿速，可侮也；廉潔，可辱也；愛 民，可煩也。」用現代語言表達，可說成：不怕死的將領，容易被殺；貪生怕死的，容易被俘；急躁易怒的，容易衝動鹵莽出戰而敗；廉潔愛好名聲的，容易被人故 意羞辱氣昏了頭而犯上錯誤；愛護人民的，容易被人用擾民策略而煩惱受困。
《孫子》說得很清楚：「凡此五者，將之過也，用兵之災也，覆軍殺將，必以五危，不可不察也。」若要在商場或政治鬥爭上變成長勝將軍，不可不聽《孫 子》的警告：任何情況下，在分析問題形勢時，都要懂得冷靜如恒，不受情緒左右，面皮要如城牆般厚。此種境界，非常人能及，但對手同樣做不到。正因如此，可 以此原則制定破敵之法。由此觀之，《孫子》實為絕情絕義之書，也可視為「行為科學」的鼻祖。
現代社會仍可應用
在現代社會中，各政府無法不顯出愛民如子的姿態。恐怖分子的頭號對手是美國政府，他們發動911恐怖襲擊，正是看中對方死穴，用上了《孫子》中「愛 民，可煩也」的策略，美國政府不能不為此而耗費大量資源。香港推動「佔領中環」運動諸人，又何嘗不是用同一策略？「佔領中環」的意圖是以損害人民經濟利益 的手段去迫使政府就範，這中間其實是（正確地或錯誤地）假設了政府愛民，所以會被它所煩。
碼頭工人罷工至今已過一個月，從雙方的角力中，也可看出其策略及優缺點。李嘉誠用過130億元搞慈善事業（他個人從香港的碼頭中每年只能賺得幾千萬 利潤，「濕濕碎」），顯示出他可能十分重視名聲。工會用的策略之一便是不斷用語言暴力侮辱他，希望他受不了而出錯。李嘉誠會否犯上「將有五危」中「廉潔， 可辱也」的弱點？我不知道，但他從不直接回應相關的挑釁，顯示出他的EQ頗高，不易受算。
至於工人方面，已略顯沉不着氣的現象，隨時墮入「忿速，可侮也」的險境。開口叫價增薪23％並為此堅持一段長時期，使到一艱難經營的外判商索性倒閉，拒絕再「剝削」工人；從工人的利益看來，已是「貪勝不知輸」。
其實，從更大的格局看此事，香港碼頭為何只保持低度的機械化？原因只是因為香港工資較歐美為低。若工資成本上升，碼頭公司自會輕易調整策略，更多用機器少用人手，否則，高昂的收費會嚇走它的顧客。
工人若今次堅持到底，不怕犧牲，勝了這一仗，反而可能犯上「必死，可殺也」的錯誤，加快了碼頭公司轉型用機器的速度，從而令更多人失去職位。
中美關係時好時壞，溫家寶似乎也是個極重歷史名聲之人，並以廉潔自勉。美國媒體指控他家人擁有大量財富，並因而得到普立茲獎。在有意無意間，美國人也是用上「廉潔，可辱也」的一招了。是否有效，不得而知。
(本欄逢周一、三、五刊登)
撰文︰雷鼎鳴
運氣 VS 準備
在充滿不確定性的環境下，進行冒險活動，究竟由甚麼因素，去決定成功與失敗？很多人會認為，基本上是講運氣。歷史上的冒險家，失敗者似乎往往只是一時遭到命運之神拋棄，而最終飲恨。實情又是如何？1911年，爭先抵達南極的競賽，可以作為一個例子。
當
中英國探險隊，在隊長史葛領導下，不幸碰上連番厄運，最終全軍覆沒，飢寒疲憊交逼下，全部在雪地上凍斃。他們遇上了甚麼歹運？史葛挑選了矮種馬，和當時的
高新科技機動雪橇，作為運輸工具。但是馬匹在冰天雪地中勞動，汗水結冰，很快倒地；機動雪橇幾日內便全壞，落得人手拉雪橇的下場。
之後災難仍是不斷：用作測量的溫度計，被史葛不慎打破；只有一噸補給品，嚴重不足。史葛由是在日記中狂呻，「在天氣一環，當真無運」、「行了太多衰運，運氣真是極其重要！」
三個月後，英國隊到達終點，才發現對手挪威隊早一個月已經勝出，而回程的距離，尚有七百英里。此後天氣越發變壞，英國隊做人肉騾仔，做到筋疲力盡，最終在兩個月後，受困糧絕，隊員雙擁而亡。後來隊伍最後駐紮地被發現，原來與補給站，只剩下十英里之距，是否真的無運至此？
如果只有英國隊一部，後人可能只會歸咎運氣，感慨一番而已。可是同一時間，卻有凱旋而歸的挪威隊，可以作為對照，結論便變得完全不一樣。
兩者差不多是同時出發，雖然路線不同，但是挪威隊在運氣上，也未見有何優勢。據事後統計，雙方遇上壞天氣的日子，數目不相上下。不同的是挪威隊隊長Amundsen，為了這次旅程所作的準備，廣度和強度，與已逝者全然不同。
上期提到的牙擦Amundsen，確實抵佢咁威，因為其對不同情況的準備，已經達到近乎完美的程度：一次旅程，出發地
點為西班牙，與他身處的挪威，相距兩千英里。他可以搭車搭船，卻故意選擇踩單車前往，以作為高強度體能訓練的機會。他又無端端試食生海豚肉，測量其充飢效
果，因為一旦某次探險遇事，手頭可及或許只餘此物。
物資準備上，兩者也是差天共地。Amundsen除照抄雪地人裝束外，
還引進了當地部族的良伴：拉雪橇的犬隻。與史葛一出閘便跪低的馬匹、機動雪橇相比，犬隻是久經考驗的選擇。而且犬隻是肉食動物，作為受困糧絕的緊急方案，
是可用傷亡弱犬喂飼餘犬，繼續逃生；不像馬、機器，需要額外飼料、燃料。儘管如此，在物資的數量上，Amundsen還是毫不鬆懈，五人隊伍，攜帶三噸補
給品；史葛則只有一噸。重要設備如史葛打爛的溫度計，Amundsen則帶定四枝，任憑如何不好運、不小心，也很難連爆四次。
一言以蔽之，Amundsen與史葛的準備，幾乎百分百倒轉。當準備越充足，便越難出現所謂「壞運氣」。因為可能的情況，已經有心理預期，一旦出現，就立刻解決，影響也受控，自然不用仰天長嘯。
2013年4月26日星期五
雷鼎鳴 - 工資水平與剝削
【晴報專訊】碼頭工人罷工，要求加薪23％，有人認為是獅子大開口，使行業難以承受，但也有人認為其工時長，雖有近兩萬元月薪，工人仍是被剝削。究竟他們現時待遇是合理的，還是正在被剝削？
工資要等於勞動邊際產值
經濟學對勞動市場的工資有頗為完整的理論。我們可先用大學一年級最基本的經濟理論分析工資。首先，在競爭的市場中，工資的水平受供求力量所決定。假 設工資是每小時50元（你說它是10元、100元也無不可），那麼，公司僱用工人時，必要做到工資等於「勞動邊際產值」（MPL）。所謂「勞動邊際產值」 是指僱用多一小時的勞動力後，這新增的勞動力會替你生產出多少價值。因為「報酬遞減律」，最初一批勞動力的「邊際產值」會較高，但工人或工時愈多，再增加 勞動力，它帶來的額外產值便會愈低。如果勞動邊際產值本來是60元，高於50元的工資，有人會認為這已經是剝削了。新僱用的勞動力可替你多賺60元，你只 付他50元，這不正是剝削嗎？但其實若出現這種情況，僱主必會試圖改變。既然多僱用一小時可替你淨賺多10元，絕對值得僱用這員工。僱主會一直增加僱員， 直至勞動邊際產值跌至剛好等於工資為止。
工資等於勞動邊際產值是想謀取最大利潤的僱主所選擇的結果。在生產過程中，僱主提供資本，勞工提供勞動力；僱主可得到資本的回報，勞工也可得到工 資。按以上相同的理論，經濟學也可證明出資金回報率剛好會等於資本邊際產值。在競爭市場上，決定資方可得多少回報及勞方可得多少工資，其機制是對稱的。只 要工資等於勞動邊際產值，資本回報率等於資本邊際產值，我們便很難說資方在剝削勞方，或勞方在剝削資方。
低工資補償潛在風險
以上只是最粗略的基本理論。在現實世界中，有時工資與勞動邊際產值可以不一樣。例如，多僱用一小時勞工後，或許產值可增加60元，但資方只肯出50 元便就此停步。原因可能是資方覺得該名工人態度古怪，隨時會怠工，影響到其他人，所以有必要把這潛在風險帶來的成本也考慮在內，在僱用該工人時付出較低的 工資，以作補償。
我們也可注意到某些公司提供較佳的工作環境，又肯多付福利。有人以為，這是企業肯負起所謂「社會責任」所致，其實不然。提供這些優厚條件要額外經 費，企業會視此為投資，而回報正是因為這些措施可穩定軍心，增加歸屬感，從而使到員工更拼命工作，企業可賺更多的錢。企業的目的是利潤，再用「社會責任」 去包裝，使自己站在道德高地。
資方較勞方富有，資方應否向每一工人付出比他們的邊際產值更高的工資，當做爭取當「慷慨僱主」或賺取「社會良心」之名的手段？這會甚為不妥。如此一來，會使競爭者面對壓力，被迫加薪挽留員工，搞不好的，可能頂不住成本上升而倒閉。
況且資方若要做善事，為何不把錢捐給真正的窮人？把錢送給員工豈是最正義的做法？
尚有一個問題。外判工作通常只局限於公司的非核心技能，但為甚麼碼頭會把一些核心工程也外判出去？這容易解釋。今年與明年香港的大學因為改成四年制，有些課程的學生人數突然暫時性的猛增一倍，但將來會回落。
大學怎樣應付？外判是也！即找一些臨時性的教員頂替一兩年。碼頭公司把部分工種外判，很可能是認為這行業在走下坡，不敢僱用太多人，而用外判則容易脫身。
(本欄逢周一、三、五刊登)
撰文︰雷鼎鳴
2013年4月8日星期一
10 Tips For Professional Punting
source from: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-become-a-professional-bettor
At some point in time all people who bet have to ask themselves the question: Is this merely an expensive hobby for "fun" or something I can make enough money from to live off?
Most of us all fall somewhere in the middle. At various times we will feel confident that winning consistently from our views is achievable. At other times we feel embarrassed by poor decisions and bet "for an interest" or because a game we know nothing about is televised.
No punter is perfect and no punter has never made errors or chased. The important thing is learning from these mistakes and steering clear of them.
If you are serious about moving your betting in the direction of becoming a profession, here's 10 tips to help you along the tricky path.
Trying to study form "on the hoof" during racing for example is very difficult and often leads to poor decisions. The ideal pro will have his prices formed in the morning and base trading decisions on them in the afternoon.
However, never be swayed too much especially during poor spells when self doubt can always creep in. "Inside information" or a "hot tip" are also best avoided in the longer term, principally because 9/10 the price will already reflect this "secret".
However, where he was excellent and turned this opinion into huge overall profits, was where he had a very strong "nap". This would often be based on "team news" direct from one of the clubs where for example, a team was severely weakened by injuries or illness. He would find this out well ahead of the industry and really smash into the stronger team at all rates and in all markets. When the shock news became public he would have a massive edge over the layers who found they had huge liabilities at totally wrong levels.
In this information age such an "edge" has gone, but the shrewd punter is always on the lookout for the next one, while Hunter has now semi-retired and plays golf!
Here is where most of us go totally wrong. Betting is an intensely personal and private thing and controlling instincts and having a very strong mind are essential. Otherwise we can all become the "bookmakers dream punter", someone who bets in every race/game, playing bigger and bigger as we try and claw back earlier losses until the entire tank has gone.
Even the most astute and highly regarded backers such as Patrick Veitch has stated that he waits to settle his weekly accounts sometimes to make sure they show a profit. i.e settles them after a fortnight when he is back in front. This is purely psychological and means he feels "in the zone" going forward to the next period.
Racehorse owner and pro-punter John Basquill also states the importance of regular wins achieved by playing in a size well within his comfort zone. He has learnt that life outside of betting is far more relaxed if the bad days do not play on the mind too much, while in-running expert Steve Noyce emphasises how important it is to play a long, patient game and avoid the bad habits of smashing away that ruin so many.
These are punters who do nothing else other than bet for a living, and their ideas and attitudes are very important to understand even for people who see betting a recreation.
At some point in time all people who bet have to ask themselves the question: Is this merely an expensive hobby for "fun" or something I can make enough money from to live off?
Most of us all fall somewhere in the middle. At various times we will feel confident that winning consistently from our views is achievable. At other times we feel embarrassed by poor decisions and bet "for an interest" or because a game we know nothing about is televised.
No punter is perfect and no punter has never made errors or chased. The important thing is learning from these mistakes and steering clear of them.
If you are serious about moving your betting in the direction of becoming a profession, here's 10 tips to help you along the tricky path.
1- Find An Edge And Stay On It
This is key. Put theory to one side and concentrate on finding yourself an angle. A vital edge that means you can make a profit. Whether it is lower league football or specialising at one greyhound track, you need to become a cut above the crowd and form views that are not in the public domain i.e not in the price already.2- Don't Set Daily Targets
Pointless, futile and leads to chasing. On a quiet day at the end of each month, tot up the figures and record them. Try not to procrastinate over them and only focus on what went wrong and why.3- Keep Form Study And Analysis Separate From The Actual Business Of Betting
Get your opinions formed before the actual mechanics of betting and trading take place. Unless you are wealthy enough like Patrick Veitch to have a small army of bet-placers to do your business, it is essential to have a clear idea of what you want to do before the difficult task of "getting-on" takes place.Trying to study form "on the hoof" during racing for example is very difficult and often leads to poor decisions. The ideal pro will have his prices formed in the morning and base trading decisions on them in the afternoon.
4- Have A "Working" Betting Day And Avoid Playing At All When "Off"
A fatal flaw that we can all succumb to. There is nothing worse than turning the computer on one Sunday and losing a few hundred pounds/euros when you had no intention of doing anything. This can really upset the mindset and also ruin a day of rest. Forget the game completely unless utterly dedicated to it.5- Talk To Others But Don't Listen To Them!
The life of a punter can be very isolated and it is very important to touch base with fellow humans. Also chatting to people whose view we respect can provide another angle that had not been considered.However, never be swayed too much especially during poor spells when self doubt can always creep in. "Inside information" or a "hot tip" are also best avoided in the longer term, principally because 9/10 the price will already reflect this "secret".
6- Keep Betting Money Totally Separate From Day To Day Expenses/Life
Try not to merge "real life" necessities with money for betting. This makes life a lot less stressful and also makes us take a far more business like approach to money management/betting.7- Do Not Get Bored
Can be fatal. I often found when specialising in jumps racing that during the summer I was very vulnerable to playing on the flat purely because there was little else to do, (with very expensive consequences). All of us have a bit of "action junkie" in us and it is very dangerous if it takes over. Betfair can do this to a lot of otherwise very shrewd people.8- Avoid The Persecution Complex
Why me? How many photo's have I been beaten in today? What has the jockey done there? How did he miss that? Forget it! These things level out in time and we all tend to remember the unlucky losers and forget the fortunate winners!9- Don't Tell The Whole World When You Are Winning
"Won very small". "Lost very small". Six words that every pro-punter needs to learn off by heart, particularly if he is married or in a relationship.10- Relate Staking To Strength Of Opinion, Not To Position Financially On The Day Or Week.
The hardest to achieve but the most important. A former colleague of mine, lets call him Hunter, was an excellent judge of rugby league and showed the importance of staking to me. He watched a huge number of matches and had "ins" at all the main clubs and would have "positions" on a large number of games every week. After paying a commission agent/exchange charges etc he broke about level year on year on his weekly business.However, where he was excellent and turned this opinion into huge overall profits, was where he had a very strong "nap". This would often be based on "team news" direct from one of the clubs where for example, a team was severely weakened by injuries or illness. He would find this out well ahead of the industry and really smash into the stronger team at all rates and in all markets. When the shock news became public he would have a massive edge over the layers who found they had huge liabilities at totally wrong levels.
In this information age such an "edge" has gone, but the shrewd punter is always on the lookout for the next one, while Hunter has now semi-retired and plays golf!
Easier Said Than Done
The theory with betting is often far easier to write about than it is to execute in practice. All of us have felt that flushed feeling when something goes wrong with a bet. That twitch to chase the losses and plunge on anything to immediately recoup the losses from a bet that we had thought home and hosed.Here is where most of us go totally wrong. Betting is an intensely personal and private thing and controlling instincts and having a very strong mind are essential. Otherwise we can all become the "bookmakers dream punter", someone who bets in every race/game, playing bigger and bigger as we try and claw back earlier losses until the entire tank has gone.
Even the most astute and highly regarded backers such as Patrick Veitch has stated that he waits to settle his weekly accounts sometimes to make sure they show a profit. i.e settles them after a fortnight when he is back in front. This is purely psychological and means he feels "in the zone" going forward to the next period.
Racehorse owner and pro-punter John Basquill also states the importance of regular wins achieved by playing in a size well within his comfort zone. He has learnt that life outside of betting is far more relaxed if the bad days do not play on the mind too much, while in-running expert Steve Noyce emphasises how important it is to play a long, patient game and avoid the bad habits of smashing away that ruin so many.
These are punters who do nothing else other than bet for a living, and their ideas and attitudes are very important to understand even for people who see betting a recreation.
四連環策略
逆向思維 – 四連環策略
在繼續講「過關」策略之前，想盆開話題，講賽馬的投注心得。先旨聲明，對於賽馬，我是初哥，絕不專業，也不沉迷，不過，我有一些另類投注策略，想和大家分享。
又來先說小故事。
由於丈夫很喜歡養馬，我們有入馬房探馬的習慣。
入馬房探班，練馬師和馬房經理忙於招呼馬主，我卻享受和馬伕和馬房助理傾談。
練馬師告訴馬主的，和馬伕告訴我的，是十分不同的東西。
從馬伕身上，我學會很多馬匹的知識，例如，怎看馬匹狀態、甚麼是肥、甚麼是瘦、怎麼算是壯、怎麼叫做弱；怎樣算是身光頸靚，高班馬是甚麼型格、低班馬欠缺甚麼．．．
如是者，聽了幾年，漸漸看馬匹的神態，牠輕鬆或緊張、精神爽利或怠惰厭戰，我都略懂。
我又對馬匹的身型比例，有不錯的眼光．現時，我看著一匹馬，能約略看出牠的體重。
關於馬匹的知識，我不懂的還有太多，但不懂有不懂的玩法。
最近我研究了四連環的投注方法，把逆向思維放了進去，並且已試驗兩個月，效果不錯。
四連環的玩法，是要選中第一二三四名的馬匹，名次不分．
如果每場選7匹馬買四連環的話，即共投注35注．
如果有冷馬跑進頭四名，只要每注派彩超過$350元，即有錢贏．
我的四連環玩法：選跑馬地夜賽，最好是四、五班場次，出馬十二匹的場合中投注。
選馬的方式，並不是選最有機會的7匹，而是剔走最沒機會的5匹。
剔走覺得沒機會的5匹，剩餘7匹，希望牠們跑入前4名，只要當中有冷腳，就會很好分；當然，全熱門的話，派彩可能少於35倍，即是要蝕錢。
這種投注方法，如果你很有心水的話，可選馬膽，1膽拖6匹則只需20注。
不過，我不通常不會膽拖，因為這種玩法，就是希望冷腳走進來，會比較好分．
也不是一定要買$10一注的，在馬會的手機app中投注，可以選「靈活玩」，最低可以玩$100注項總額，即每注$2.85（但我不清楚投注站和電話投注是否一樣）。
這玩法，我試驗了兩個月，每次都是平等注項，每注$10，收獲不錯。
選跑馬地「夜馬」、「低班」的，是因為通常會比較亂局，爆冷機會較大。
「十二匹場合」，是因為要剔走的比留下的少，在十四匹的場合不宜試，因為要剔走七匹沒機會的，和選七匹有機會一樣難。
「不拖膽」，是因為希望冷的跑入來，整體來說，都是一種逆向思維，所以，問題不是哪匹最有機會。
當然，以上所有原則，都可以有些微變動，例如是三班賽事，又或者沙田賽事，只要你覺得可以這樣玩，亦不妨一試。
三月六日晚上的跑馬地夜馬，我用了這個方法，試了四場，中了三場，有些很好分頭，有些得不償失，然後我發現，在有幾匹太有把握的馬在的場合，就不宜用這種方法投注，刨完了亦要忍手。
還有一些秘訣，近來，潘頓韋達的不要飛，輕磅靚檔的不能飛，灰馬不好飛，後補上陣的亦不能飛。
這方法供大家參考，合心水的請隨便拿去用．
source from - http://www.roadshow.hk/blog-spotting by 梁芷珊
Meet The Perfect Punter
Source from - http://www.bettingexpert.com
Throughout our Talking Betting series we have discussed the world of professional betting with a selection of pro-punters and industry insiders, in the process attempting to unearth the trade secrets that set them apart from the crowd and survive long term in the gambling game.
Today we imagine the world of the "perfect punter".
Our PP made the bold step to go it alone in his mid-twenties after spending his years following university in a variety of roles for a major online bookmaker. Here he gained a valuable insight into the habits of vast numbers of punters and saw the failings that led many to lose steadily over a long period of time.
He developed strategies and areas of expertise in which he specialised, and always dreamed of not having to answer to bosses and devote more of his time to studying and betting himself. When the company relocated to Gibralter he accepted redundancy rather than move to Spain and used the money as a starting "tank" on which to begin his existence as a "pro-punter".
Crucially he has two days off every week (Sunday and Monday) which he can devote as family time and a chance to do chores and admin. He never bets at all on these days. He has regular holidays that are planned months in advance and again is never tempted to bet during these recreational times.
He never bets at all for the sake of having an "interest", or when out in the evening in the pub. He plays strictly only when he can find a price that is bigger than he believes the real chance to be. The PP is happy to have risk free trades when he can, i.e laying his stake back at a lesser price before an event begins, but he does not set out to arb deliberately. He is happy that his judgement will be vindicated over time and is calm in his mindset that he is "right", without having the arrogance to believe that everything he does is right.
The PP will be aware of all real-time events that can alter his ideas about certain races, i.e non runners, the weather causing the ground to change, effect of the draw etc etc. He must have his finger firmly on the pulse but all the time using the solid base of his carefully constructed prices. He is not sentimental in anyway and does not attach himself emotionally to certain horses he has bet in the past. His view is C0MPLETELY and T0TALLY based on PRICE, and it is this that guides him when to bet. If he has missed a price he will never chase it down and accept underneath what his tissue tells him is the "real" chance of success.
The PP finds the challenge of getting bets on one of the major negatives of being a pro. The firms are increasingly intolerant of anyone they believe to not be a "mug" punter and horse racing in particular has become a comparatively unprofitable arena for them. When he started he found it relatively easy to play in size. He now accepts that most of his attempted bets will be reduced dramatically in the few online accounts he has left. While this is frustrating, he does take heart that this is a mark of respect in which the layers hold his judgement.
His finances for betting are in a separate bank account that he does not use for anything else. That way he can measure his successes and failures without worrying about paying the gas bill. The PP will review each month how his betting is going, without suddenly changing strategy because of a temporary blip in profits.
Again it is a totally a numbers game. The PP views his profits as a salary for all the hours of studying that he puts in. He is not after a life changing win from wild accumulators, but rather the steady grind of regular winnings. This type of strategy is far easier to deal with mentally for the PP. His confidence in his own ability is measured by a steady flow of profits rather than by blasting his way out of trouble and all the highs and lows that punting that way can lead to.
Many pros feel slightly embarrassed to declare what they do for a living and socially it can be hard to explain to people who have pre-conceived ideas about the type of person a "gambler" actually is. The PP has found the best cure for this wobble in self belief is to try the occasional rush hour journey with his peers who still engage in the "rat race". He finds that 45 mins on a rammed train in the morning followed by standing on the tube into town rapidly cures him of any ideas of returning to a "normal" job.
The PP enjoys the fact that he manages his own time and is his own boss but recognises that, to avoid burn out and fatigue, he does have to regulate his hours spent betting and trading.
The PP has reached a secure financial position and is confident in his ability to stay ahead of an ever-changing game.
Throughout our Talking Betting series we have discussed the world of professional betting with a selection of pro-punters and industry insiders, in the process attempting to unearth the trade secrets that set them apart from the crowd and survive long term in the gambling game.
Today we imagine the world of the "perfect punter".
Our PP made the bold step to go it alone in his mid-twenties after spending his years following university in a variety of roles for a major online bookmaker. Here he gained a valuable insight into the habits of vast numbers of punters and saw the failings that led many to lose steadily over a long period of time.
He developed strategies and areas of expertise in which he specialised, and always dreamed of not having to answer to bosses and devote more of his time to studying and betting himself. When the company relocated to Gibralter he accepted redundancy rather than move to Spain and used the money as a starting "tank" on which to begin his existence as a "pro-punter".
Discipline
0ur PP treats everyday as a day in the office at work. He starts early at 7am and closes the door on the outside world until 6pm. He is not distracted by phone-calls or interruptions that can blight so many people who work from home. His office is crucially at the end of the garden in a converted garage where he can shut himself off and concentrate totally on the pursuit of profitable wagers and trades.Crucially he has two days off every week (Sunday and Monday) which he can devote as family time and a chance to do chores and admin. He never bets at all on these days. He has regular holidays that are planned months in advance and again is never tempted to bet during these recreational times.
He never bets at all for the sake of having an "interest", or when out in the evening in the pub. He plays strictly only when he can find a price that is bigger than he believes the real chance to be. The PP is happy to have risk free trades when he can, i.e laying his stake back at a lesser price before an event begins, but he does not set out to arb deliberately. He is happy that his judgement will be vindicated over time and is calm in his mindset that he is "right", without having the arrogance to believe that everything he does is right.
Specialising and Price Sensitivity
Our PP is interested solely in one area of betting. He may enjoy watching the football live in the evening and attend Test Matches in the Summer on his days off, but he will never bet on sports where he has no edge or purely to bring excitement to an outcome to which he does not care. He devotes his time to watching over and over the recordings of horse races, making notes on how every runner has performed and storing them on his constantly updating database. In the morning he will price up every runner in the races he feels he can price i.e ignoring races with debutantes in or gambling stables, and will formulate a "tissue" price on every runner in these races. He will not even glance at the betting exchanges before formulating his prices and will try to get a "perfect" tissue at around the 100% point.The PP will be aware of all real-time events that can alter his ideas about certain races, i.e non runners, the weather causing the ground to change, effect of the draw etc etc. He must have his finger firmly on the pulse but all the time using the solid base of his carefully constructed prices. He is not sentimental in anyway and does not attach himself emotionally to certain horses he has bet in the past. His view is C0MPLETELY and T0TALLY based on PRICE, and it is this that guides him when to bet. If he has missed a price he will never chase it down and accept underneath what his tissue tells him is the "real" chance of success.
Accounts and Exchanges
0ur PP has found life getting harder and harder in trying to have worthwhile accounts with online layers. He has found more and more that he needs to be inventive in getting wagers on at the best prices, i.e playing in cash in betting shops or getting relations to open accounts for him. 90% of his business is now conducted on the betting exchanges, although he finds the 3% "tax" on his winning bets has a huge impact on his bottom line profitability and would prefer to have the win bets with conventional layers. This has become difficult because of the heavy restrictions placed on every new account he opens as soon as it attracts the attention of traders.The PP finds the challenge of getting bets on one of the major negatives of being a pro. The firms are increasingly intolerant of anyone they believe to not be a "mug" punter and horse racing in particular has become a comparatively unprofitable arena for them. When he started he found it relatively easy to play in size. He now accepts that most of his attempted bets will be reduced dramatically in the few online accounts he has left. While this is frustrating, he does take heart that this is a mark of respect in which the layers hold his judgement.
Finances and Control
The PP remembers advice that an old pro gave him when he first started: "Everyone is a blinding player when they are in front. It is only the true professionals that still play the same way when they are losing". The PP never chases his losses at all and maintains a level of betting unrelated to an event that has gone before.His finances for betting are in a separate bank account that he does not use for anything else. That way he can measure his successes and failures without worrying about paying the gas bill. The PP will review each month how his betting is going, without suddenly changing strategy because of a temporary blip in profits.
Again it is a totally a numbers game. The PP views his profits as a salary for all the hours of studying that he puts in. He is not after a life changing win from wild accumulators, but rather the steady grind of regular winnings. This type of strategy is far easier to deal with mentally for the PP. His confidence in his own ability is measured by a steady flow of profits rather than by blasting his way out of trouble and all the highs and lows that punting that way can lead to.
Keeping Emotion and Ego Out Of It
The PP is calm and measured in his approach. He does not scream out loud in victory or defeat. He doesn't feel the need to tell all his pals (or wife) when he has had a spectacular winning (or losing) day. So many punters put their "egos" into punting rather than their brains and the PP has seen plenty come and go out of the game. He realises that to survive and earn enough he has to be consistent in his approach and unemotional in his mindset.Loneliness, Feelings of Self Worth and "Grass Is Always Greener Syndrome"
0ur PP is happy in his own company but is aware of the mental strain that pro-betting can lead to. He has seen his best pal return to an office job purely because the lonely hours spent staring at a computer screen without human contact drove him slightly mad. He fell foul to the "grass is greener" idea where he felt he was missing out on the "real world".Many pros feel slightly embarrassed to declare what they do for a living and socially it can be hard to explain to people who have pre-conceived ideas about the type of person a "gambler" actually is. The PP has found the best cure for this wobble in self belief is to try the occasional rush hour journey with his peers who still engage in the "rat race". He finds that 45 mins on a rammed train in the morning followed by standing on the tube into town rapidly cures him of any ideas of returning to a "normal" job.
The PP enjoys the fact that he manages his own time and is his own boss but recognises that, to avoid burn out and fatigue, he does have to regulate his hours spent betting and trading.
The PP has reached a secure financial position and is confident in his ability to stay ahead of an ever-changing game.
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